Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity
Forecast roughly 24 percent speed-up; believed roughly 20 percent; measured roughly 19 percent slower.
Cited in
METR. 'Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity.' RCT, July 2025. (Forecast roughly 24 percent speed-up; believed roughly 20 percent; measured roughly 19 percent slower.)