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Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The checkerboard illusion, illustrating simultaneous contrast." MIT OpenCourseWare. Accessed July 26, 2026. https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/9-35-sensation-and-perception-spring-2009/resources/9-35s09-th/
The roughly seven-month doubling since 2019 with recent acceleration; about one hour for early-2025 frontier models; the climb toward twelve hours by early 2026.
METR. 'Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks' (Kwa et al., 2025) and 'Time Horizon 1.1' (January 2026). (The roughly seven-month doubling since 2019 with recent acceleration; about one hour for early-2025 frontier models; the climb toward twelve hours by early 2026.)
Forecast roughly 24 percent speed-up; believed roughly 20 percent; measured roughly 19 percent slower.
METR. 'Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity.' RCT, July 2025. (Forecast roughly 24 percent speed-up; believed roughly 20 percent; measured roughly 19 percent slower.)
Kwa, Thomas, Ben West, et al. 'Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks.' METR, arXiv:2503.14499, March 2025.
Becker, Joel, Nate Rush, Elizabeth Barnes and David Rein. 'Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity.' METR, arXiv:2507.09089, July 2025.
Adelson, Edward H. 'Checkershadow Illusion.' MIT, 1995.